The crisis in the construction industry in Russia & Ukraine is dampening the growth prospects of the Eastern European window market.
The sales increase in the CEE countries in 2019 will amount to only 0.6% (33.1 million units), which means that the market is still far behind its 2014 level (40.9 million units). Despite stagnation, the 2018 sales volumes of + 3.1% reflects significant sales growth driven by growing environmental awareness, according to a study by Interconnection Consulting.
The Russia & Ukraine region is by far the largest market with a market share of 53% and a sales volume of 17.6 million units. For 2019, Interconnection expects a further 1.2% decline in sales. Interconnection Consulting doesn’t expect a recovery until 2022, at which point they predict a slight increase in sales for the region for the first time. The biggest growth in the past 10 years came from the Baltic countries, whose window market benefited from a huge construction boom, both in residential and non-residential construction.
Overall, the region was able to increase sales by 7.6% last year. Nevertheless, the strong growth will decline rapidly in the coming years. An average annual growth of 1.4% is expected. The Visegrad countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia) recorded an increase in sales of 4.2% last year. As a result of the slowdown in the construction sector, however, further growth in the window market will gradually decrease (CAGR: 2018-2022 + 1.4%). The Balkan countries will continue to maintain their growth path, achieving average growth of 2.7% annually until 2022. The region of Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria-Greece recorded a decline in the new construction sector in 2018, but this is compensated by strong growth rates in the renovation sector. Here, the projected annual growth rate for sales is 2.3% until 2022.
Combinations Catch Up
The highest turnover is still reported for PVC windows with 2.48 billion euros. The average annual growth rate until 2022 is 3.0%. In second place, we have metal windows at 1.03 billion euros. These should be able to increase their share (CAGR + 5.2%). Due to stronger growth in non-residential construction, where this product group has a higher market share, metal windows are expected to achieve higher growth rates over the next few years than PVC windows. The segments with the highest growth, however, are clearly combinations. Wood-aluminum will grow by an average of 7.6% and PVC-aluminum by an average of 6.6% per year until 2022. Both material groups combine the advantages of the aluminum look with the comfort of wood or the easy care of PVC.
High Export Rate
The residential construction sector is the largest sales market for window manufacturers at a share of around two-thirds (66.1%). However, this sector is now stagnant and is compensated by stable growth in non-residential construction (CAGR + 2.0%). While triple glazing are the preferred window type in the Baltic States and in Russia & Ukraine with a share of 72.5% and 54.5% respectively, double glazing dominates in the Visegrad countries (65.6%) in the Balkans (73.9%), and in Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria-Greece (80.4%). While the Western European window markets are struggling with rising import quotas, the export rate in the Eastern European markets is booming. Thanks Drutex, Oknoplast and Eko-Okna, the leading companies in Europe, Poland already has a tremendous export share of 56%.