Interconnection Consulting has released a new market study analysing the development of the aluminium profile systems market across six major European countries: Italy, France, Germany, the UK, Spain, and Poland.
The study highlights a market that has faced significant pressure over the past two years but is expected to regain momentum from 2025 onwards, supported by recovering construction activity, resilient non-residential demand, and strong long-term fundamentals.
Market overview: decline in 2024–2025 followed by recovery outlook
After reaching approximately 518,000 tons in 2023, the European aluminium profiles market declined by -4.4% in 2024, falling to around 495,000 tons. The downward trend is expected to continue in 2025, with volumes projected to decrease by a further -1.8% to approximately 486,000 tons. This development reflects the broader slowdown in European construction activity, driven by inflationary pressures, high interest rates, and postponed building investments.
In value terms, the market declined from €3.3 billion in 2023 to €3.1 billion in 2024 (-6.1%). A slight recovery is expected in 2025 (+0.7%), before the market enters a stronger growth phase. Between 2025 and 2028, the aluminium profile systems market across the Europe Top 6 is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +7.0% per year, reaching nearly €3.9 billion by 2028.
This medium-term growth outlook is supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, easing financing constraints, rising construction prices, and renewed investment activity, particularly in non-residential and new construction projects.
Regional dynamics: Southern Europe outperforms while central markets lag
Regional performance across Europe shows clear divergence. Spain stands out as the best-performing market in the short term, supported by comparatively stronger building sector dynamics and faster normalization of demand. From 2025 to 2028, Southern European markets are expected to grow above the European average value CAGR of +7.0%, positioning Spain among the fastest-recovering aluminium profile markets within the Europe Top 6.
In contrast, Central and Western European markets, notably Germany, and to a lesser extent the UK and France, have been more exposed to the construction downturn. Germany alone accounts for approximately 23.1% of total aluminium profile quantities across the Europe Top 6 and slightly underperforms the European average in the current phase.
However, these markets are expected to play a key role in the recovery phase, supported by their large market size, strong non-residential segments, and improving investment conditions from 2025 onwards. In value terms, Germany is forecast to record the highest growth, with a value CAGR of +8.1% between 2025 and 2028.
Product group developments: façades show strongest recovery potential
Across product groups, windows remain the largest application segment in 2025, accounting for approximately 40% of total aluminium profile quantities in the Europe Top 6. Despite their leading position, window systems show a moderate decline compared to the previous year, reflecting weaker residential construction activity. Doors and sliding door systems also experienced slight contractions in 2025, in line with the residential slowdown.
Façades, however, have proven to be the most resilient product group during the downturn, recording only a marginal decline in 2025. Looking ahead, façades are expected to lead the market recovery, showing the strongest quantity growth outlook with a CAGR of +4.2% between 2025 and 2028. This trend reflects increasing investments in non-residential buildings, energy-efficient envelopes, and architectural modernization projects.
Average prices per ton across all product groups are projected to remain relatively stable, with a gradual upward trend over the forecast period.
Demand structure: non-residential and new construction to drive future growth
From a demand perspective, the residential segment remains the most affected by the construction slowdown, with quantities expected to decline further by -2.7% between 2024 and 2025. Residential applications are projected to remain below 70% of total market volumes until at least 2026.
In contrast, non-residential demand shows greater resilience, supported by public, commercial, and infrastructure investments. After only a minor decline in 2025 (-0.6%), the non-residential segment is expected to lead the market recovery, achieving the strongest quantity growth with a CAGR of approximately +4.5% between 2025 and 2028.
Renovation continues to dominate current demand, particularly in Southern Europe, while new construction remains under pressure in the short term. However, new construction is forecast to become the main growth driver in the medium term, supported by improving economic conditions and renewed project pipelines, recording the highest quantity CAGR of around +6.0% between 2025 and 2028 across the Europe Top 6.
source: interconnectionconsulting.com
